605  
WTPZ43 KNHC 091437  
TCDEP3  
 
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 5  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025  
800 AM MST MON JUN 09 2025  
 
COSME CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING, WITH A  
RECENT 0936Z/GPM PASS INDICATING A PARTIALLY CLOSED EYEWALL  
STRUCTURE. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES  
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T3.5/55 KT. MEANWHILE, THE OBJECTIVE  
SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 48 TO 61 KNOTS. GIVEN THE IMPROVED  
STRUCTURE NOTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A BLEND OF THE  
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY  
FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.  
 
COSME IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT, AND THIS GENERAL  
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A  
SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, AS BARBARA ERODES THE  
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF COSME. A TURN TOWARD THE  
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST  
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS COSME IS SWEPT NORTHWARD INTO THE BREAK  
IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CREATED BY BARBARA. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST  
IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS GENERALLY A  
BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.  
 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING  
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO  
DECREASE, WHILE WATER TEMPERATURES HOLD AROUND 27/28C, AND DEEP  
LAYER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. AS A RESULT, THE OFFICIAL  
FORECAST CALLS FOR COSME TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. LITTLE  
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS THEN FORECAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY DESPITE  
COSME REMAINING OVER WARM WATER, AS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR  
AND GRADUALLY DECREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD INHIBIT FURTHER  
INTENSIFICATION. BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, A MORE RAPID  
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER,  
WITH COSME EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 09/1500Z 14.5N 113.3W 55 KT 65 MPH  
12H 10/0000Z 14.8N 114.0W 65 KT 75 MPH  
24H 10/1200Z 15.2N 114.4W 65 KT 75 MPH  
36H 11/0000Z 15.8N 113.9W 60 KT 70 MPH  
48H 11/1200Z 17.0N 113.4W 50 KT 60 MPH  
60H 12/0000Z 18.5N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
72H 12/1200Z 19.6N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED  
 
 
FORECASTER JELSEMA/CANGIALOSI  
 
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