949
WTPZ43 KNHC 092031
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
200 PM MST MON JUN 09 2025
COSME CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE
CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER, AND THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A
PARTIAL INNER CORE. A BLEND OF THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 60 KT. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE
WIND FIELD OF COSME IS QUITE COMPACT, AND THE INITIAL WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THAT DATA.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM, AND
COSME COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT WHILE IT REMAINS IN
GENERALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE
COMBINATION OF DECREASING SSTS AND INTRUSIONS OF DRY/STABLE AIR
SHOULD END THE STRENGTHENING TREND BY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN CAUSE A
QUICK WEAKENING. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS SHOW DEEP CONVECTION VANISHING BY WEDNESDAY, AND BASED ON
THAT GUIDANCE, THE TRANSITION TO A REMNANT LOW HAS BEEN MOVED UP TO
48 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 KT, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME, A TURN TO THE
NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS COSME MOVES TOWARD A
WEAKNESS LEFT BEHIND BY HURRICANE BARBARA TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 15.0N 113.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 15.3N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 15.8N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 16.6N 113.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 17.8N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 12/0600Z 19.2N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z 20.1N 113.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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