394
WTPZ42 KNHC 092032
TCDEP2
HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
200 PM MST MON JUN 09 2025
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY BARBARA HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED.
LATEST GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM STARTING TO INGEST
SOME DRIER AIR WHICH HAS CAUSED FRAGMENTED BANDING. HOWEVER, A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS REMAINED OVER THE TINY INNER CORE. THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY RANGING FROM 50 TO 65 KT. USING THESE ESTIMATES,
THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE
SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS BARBARA BEGINS
TO WEAKEN INTO A SHALLOW VORTEX AND SLOW DOWN, IT WILL BE STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND CLOSE TO THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS.
BARBARA LIKELY HAS PEAKED AS A SHORT-LIVED HURRICANE. THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THE STORM CROSSING INTO COOLER SSTS AND INTO
A DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
STEADILY WEAKEN, LOSE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, AND BECOME POST
TROPICAL BY 36 H. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM OPENING
INTO A TROUGH BY 60 H AND DISSIPATING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 18.2N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 19.2N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 20.5N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 21.4N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1800Z 21.8N 110.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER MORA/KELLY
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