854
WTPZ43 KNHC 100231
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
800 PM MST MON JUN 09 2025
COSME REMAINS AT THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BE POTENT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER, THOUGH IT IS
WEAK ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE. UNFORTUNATELY THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY
RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES TO ASSESS THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE. SINCE
THE LATEST BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAINS NEAR 60 KT, THAT VALUE WILL BE KEPT AS THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED.
COSME IS MOVING ALONG A THERMAL RIDGE IN THE SSTS, AND IT STILL
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT BEFORE REACHING LESS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING. STEADY OR RAPID WEAKENING IS PROBABLE
BY LATE TUESDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DECREASING SSTS AND
INTRUSIONS OF DRY/STABLE AIR. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD LOSE ALL
CONVECTION EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BETWEEN 36
AND 48 H. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE ON THIS ADVISORY TO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE STORM HAS SLOWED DOWN, ONLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 3 KT, AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER THAT
TIME, A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS COSME MOVES
TOWARD A WEAKNESS LEFT BEHIND BY HURRICANE BARBARA TO ITS NORTHEAST.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE,
NEAR OR A SMIDGE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 15.2N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 15.5N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 15.9N 114.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 18.2N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z 19.3N 113.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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