608
WTPZ42 KNHC 100232
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
800 PM MST MON JUN 09 2025
BARBARA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER
TODAY. DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER FRAGMENTED WITH LIMITED BANDING
FEATURES. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD TEMPORARILY
INCREASE TONIGHT AFTER THE DIURNAL MINIMUM, OVERALL THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE ON A WEAKENING TREND. ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE NOW BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK T- AND C.I. NUMBERS FROM TAFB GIVES ABOUT A 60-KT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE, WHICH IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A MOTION OF
AROUND 310/10 KT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BARBARA
SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR A WHILE, ALBEIT WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IN 36-48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND TURN WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW-LAYER
FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
DIVERGENT TRACK GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
NHC TRACK. THIS IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
THE STORM IS CROSSING A GRADIENT OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
HEADED FOR COOLER WATERS AND A DRIER, MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THEREFORE CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY, AND BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS BELOW THE LGEM GUIDANCE BUT ABOVE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, WHICH
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 18.7N 107.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 19.8N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 20.7N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 21.2N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0000Z 21.3N 111.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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