283
WTPZ42 KNHC 100847
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
200 AM MST TUE JUN 10 2025
BARBARA HAS LOST A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF ITS CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THE LATEST CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE STILL IN THE 55-65 KT RANGE, BUT THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE 45-55 KT
RANGE. BASED ON THE DEGRADED CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE ON GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT.
BARBARA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
BEFORE, OR 310/7 KT. BARBARA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS IT IS STEERED BY WEAK RIDGING TO
ITS NORTH AND TROPICAL STORM COSME, LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST. ONLY
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK
FORECAST, WHICH LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.
THE STORM ALREADY HAS CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER OVER THE NEXT DAY. THE COLD
WATER WILL CAUSE BARBARA TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST, AND IS NEAR THE LATEST INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED SATELLITE PRODUCTS BOTH SHOW THE
CYCLONE LOSING ITS CONVECTION ENTIRELY BY ABOUT 24 HOURS, WITH
DISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO
DEPICTED BY THOSE MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 19.1N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 20.1N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS
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