812
WTPZ43 KNHC 100850
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
200 AM MST TUE JUN 10 2025
THE CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE OF COSME HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB RANGE FROM 55-65 KT, AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 54-59 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, WITH
MOTION ESTIMATED AT 300/4 KT. A SLOW MOTION, PERHAPS MORE TOWARD
THE NORTH, SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 H SINCE THE
OVERALL STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK, DUE TO BARBARA'S CURRENT
POSITION IN RELATION TO COSME. HOWEVER, AS BARBARA WEAKENS, COSME
WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING LOCATED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE
TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST, AND THE LATEST FORECAST IS NEAR THE
VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.
COSME IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN FAVORABLE ENOUGH CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 H SUCH THAT THE CYCLONE MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OR ONLY WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY. HOWEVER, AFTER THAT TIME, AS
COSME GAINS LATITUDE, IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER WATER AND DRIER AIR.
COSME IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS CONVECTION AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON
WEDNESDAY, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY PRODUCTS. THE POST-TROPICAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY 72 H. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 15.3N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 15.5N 114.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 17.4N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 12/0600Z 18.7N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN/GIBBS
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