637
WTPZ43 KNHC 101434
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
800 AM MST TUE JUN 10 2025
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE DISPLACING COSME'S DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEGUN
TO DECREASE, AND A BLEND OF THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 55 KT. THE SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND WITH COSME ALREADY SEEMING TO BE
INGESTING MORE STABLE AIR, CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. IN FACT, SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE
GFS, ECMWF, AND HIGH-RESOLUTION HURRICANE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT
COSME'S DEEP CONVECTION COULD DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT, AND THE NHC
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL IN 24
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE THE
REMNANT LOW MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS, AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY.
DUE TO ITS POSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BARBARA, COSME'S MOTION HAS
SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY, AND IT IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST (325 DEG) AT ABOUT 3 KT. WHILE THE INTERACTION WITH
BARBARA CONTINUES, COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE A BIT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION,
AND PERHAPS SHOWS MORE OF A BEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 60
HOURS, FOLLOWING THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 15.5N 114.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.8N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 16.6N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 12/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z 18.8N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z 19.6N 114.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG/GIBBS
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