802
WTPZ42 KNHC 101452
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
800 AM MST TUE JUN 10 2025
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASS
INDICATE THAT BARBARA'S SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO
THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. SUBSEQUENTLY, NORTHERLY SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW ALOFT. A BURST OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS OF -76 C DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER OVERNIGHT.
RECENT IMAGES, HOWEVER, SHOW THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES OVER A SHARP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT OF SSTS LESS THAN 24 C. THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 40 TO 65 KT, AND AS A
COMPROMISE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRY
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS
BARBARA DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HR AND DISSIPATING BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL, AND IS ESSENTIALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE PASS, BARBARA HAS BEEN MOVING
A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
AND IS NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD, OR 315/8 KT. BARBARA SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH DISSIPATION ON
WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE SKILLED HCCA
AND TVCE CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 19.9N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 21.3N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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