193
WTPZ43 KNHC 102034
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2025
ALTHOUGH COSME'S LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS OBSCURED BY HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS,
IT DOES APPEAR TO BE DISPLACED A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
CONTINUED TO DECREASE, WITH OBJECTIVE NUMBERS RANGING BETWEEN 35-45
KT, AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS BETWEEN 45-55 KT. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE NUMBERS. AN
EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS JUST OVER 40 KT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT, BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WHERE THERE COULD BE
STRONGER WINDS, WAS NOT SAMPLED.
ASCAT AND RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST COSME'S CENTER IS A LITTLE
WEST OF WHERE IT WAS PLACED THIS MORNING. STILL, THE STORM HAS
TURNED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 330/3 KT.
COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AND
SPEED UP A BIT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE COSME OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER, MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. COMBINED WITH MODERATE-TO-STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR,
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE QUICK WEAKENING, AND GFS- AND
ECWMF-BASED SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT COSME WILL LOSE
ITS DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE NHC OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS COSME BECOMING A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS, WITH
DISSIPATION NOW EXPECTED BY 60 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 15.8N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 17.1N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 18.2N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 19.1N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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