361
WTPZ42 KNHC 102037
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022025
200 PM MST TUE JUN 10 2025
THIS AFTERNOON'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION SHOWS BARBARA QUICKLY
SPINNING DOWN. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND HAS REVEALED
AN EXPOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONCE AGAIN LOWERED, TO
35 KT, AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
BASED ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS, BARBARA
SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT WHILE IT CONTINUES MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A HARSH ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.
BARBARA HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK WITHIN THE PERIPHERAL
STEERING FLOW OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO. CONSEQUENTLY, THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NORTHWARD OR 010/7 KT. BARBARA SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION
THROUGH DISSIPATION ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO
THE ECMWF AND TVCE CONSENSUS MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 20.9N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 21.7N 107.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER MORA/ROBERTS
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