077
WTPZ43 KNHC 110833
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025
200 AM MST WED JUN 11 2025
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN
THEIR TOLL ON COSME. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS
MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACCORDINGLY. A 11/0442 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT
RANGE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ASSUMING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
AFTER THAT TIME, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT. AFTER
TRANSITIONING TO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING, COSME IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
THE STORM IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ONLY A SLIGHT
EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST,
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 16.2N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 16.7N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0600Z 17.5N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1800Z 18.4N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS/HAGEN
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