448
WTPZ34 KNHC 122044
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
300 PM CST THU JUN 12 2025
...DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS TO COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
..TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 100.2W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE
11.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 100.2 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP4 AND WMO
HEADER WTPZ44 KNHC.
RAINFALL: RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
UP TO 6 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, AND COLIMA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP4.SHTML?RAINQPF
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY SATURDAY.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 PM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.
FORECASTER KELLY
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