936
WTPZ44 KNHC 130235
TCDEP4
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
900 PM CST THU JUN 12 2025
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE DISTURBANCE IS STILL BROAD WITH LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. THERE IS MINIMAL
CONVECTIVE BANDING, AND MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER. THE BROAD LOW
REMAINS A 30-KT DISTURBANCE FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD AT 6 KT, THOUGH
IT IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE
NEAR-TERM MOTION COULD BE ERRATIC AND SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT WHILE THE DISTURBANCE ORGANIZES AND FORMS A CENTER. BUT,
THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT AS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS,
IT WILL RESUME A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. LITTLE CHANGE IS SHOWN IN THE UPDATED NHC
FORECAST, WHICH REMAINS NEAR THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS
AIDS. HOWEVER, LARGER CHANGES COULD BE REQUIRED IN FUTURE ISSUANCES
DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN A CENTER EVENTUALLY FORMS.
THE BROAD STRUCTURE DOES NOT SUGGEST STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR
QUICKLY IN THE NEAR TERM. ONCE THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES, THE WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT APPEAR GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. ALTHOUGH THE REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THE
SYSTEM REACHING HURRICANE STATUS, MODERATE (15-20 KT) EASTERLY SHEAR
SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COULD MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR THAT MUCH STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. FOR NOW, THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM PEAKING AS A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM, IN LINE WITH THE SIMPLE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. COOLER WATERS
AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY DAY 5.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE OUTER BANDS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E MAY BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO, MICHOACáN,
AND COLIMA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN, ARE POSSIBLE.
2. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN
IT MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THAT AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/1200Z 12.9N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 14/0000Z 14.1N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 15.2N 103.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 17.0N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 17.5N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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