372
WTPZ44 KNHC 130832
TCDEP4
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
300 AM CST FRI JUN 13 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING INCREASING AND THE CIRCULATION BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE EITHER ENOUGH
ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION TO
BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
25-30 KT WINDS ABOUT 120 N MI SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 335/8 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST OF
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS, WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE
THE DISTURBANCE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS AND
JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF ERRATIC MOTION TODAY AS THE SYSTEM GETS BETTER ORGANIZED, AND
THIS MAY AFFECT HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM WILL COME TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO.
THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 36-48 H. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF THE
BROAD STRUCTURE AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY
TO SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT. THE NEW INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE
LOWER THAN FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
AFTER 48 H, COOLER WATERS AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO
STEADY WEAKENING, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY 120 H.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE OUTER BANDS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E MAY BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO, MICHOACáN,
AND COLIMA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN, ARE POSSIBLE.
2. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN
IT MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THAT AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0900Z 12.8N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/1800Z 13.7N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 14/0600Z 14.9N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 16.0N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 16.9N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 17.4N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 17.6N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 18.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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