832
WTPZ44 KNHC 132032
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
300 PM CST FRI JUN 13 2025
SATELLITE IMAGES AND RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT DALILA IS A LARGE
TROPICAL STORM WITH ITS 34-KT WIND RADII SPREAD OUT OVER A BROAD
AREA, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ASCAT PASSES SHOWED
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO, WHICH ARE LIKELY AIDED BY THE LOCAL TERRAIN. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF THE STORM REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT DATA AND A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. DALILA IS THE SECOND
EARLIEST FOURTH NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1949, BEHIND 1956.
DALILA LIKELY WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT
REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN
THE LARGE SIZE OF THE STORM'S WIND FIELD AND THE LACK OF AN INNER
CORE. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING SHOULD END BY LATE SATURDAY
WHEN DALILA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26 C SST ISOTHERM. THEREAFTER,
A COMBINATION OF COOL WATERS AND STABLE AIR SHOULD CAUSE RAPID
WEAKENING, AND DALILA IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE SUNDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE STORM IS STILL MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DALILA MOVES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BUILDING
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD STAY OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO, BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS A TOUCH NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA COULD BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO, MICHOACáN, AND
COLIMA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN, ARE POSSIBLE.
2. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 14.8N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.8N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 17.8N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 18.4N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 18.5N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 16/1800Z 18.5N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z 18.5N 115.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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