273
WTPZ44 KNHC 140849
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
300 AM CST SAT JUN 14 2025
DALILA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.5/55 KNOTS AND T3.0/45 KNOTS.
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 34 TO 43 KNOTS, WHILE A RECENT ASCAT
PASS SHOWED SEVERAL WIND BARBS CLOSE TO 40 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE DATA AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
UNDER-SAMPLING IN ASCAT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS.
DALILA IS HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, OR 305/10 KNOTS. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST U.S. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS DALILA MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW. A WESTWARD MOTION IS THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DISSIPATION MONDAY NIGHT, AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS AS DALILA MAY NOT
SURVIVE THAT LONG. THE TRACK FORECAST LIES NEARLY ON TOP OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.
THERE IS A LIMITED WINDOW FOR DALILA TO STRENGTHEN AS IT WILL REMAIN
OVER WARM WATER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EFFECTIVE EASTERLY SHEAR
TODAY. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING TODAY, AND THE PEAK
INTENSITY WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE LATEST
INTENSITY MODEL TRENDS. BEGINNING TONIGHT THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
26C ISOTHERM AND OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER, AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEAKENING PHASE WITH DALILA FORECAST TO BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY SOONER THAN
THAT. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO, MICHOACáN, AND COLIMA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN NEAR THE COAST.
2. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 103.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.6N 107.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 18.1N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER JELSEMA/BEVEN
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