584
WTPZ44 KNHC 142033
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
300 PM CST SAT JUN 14 2025
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST OVER THE CENTER OF DALILA, WITH
COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR -80 C AND A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND SHOWN
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED PEAK WINDS
NEAR 55 KT, WHICH PROMPTED AN INCREASE IN THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY TO
55 KT DURING THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. SINCE THEN, THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE HAS REMAINED STEADY, AND WITH BOTH OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THIS
INTENSITY, THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/9 KT. THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO TONIGHT, THEN
BEGIN TURNING TOWARD THE WEST BY SUNDAY AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
DALILA HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND THE STORM MAY
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BY SUNDAY, THE
STORM WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER, MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WILL INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS, THEN
DISSIPATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IN 72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACáN AND GUERRERO THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN NEAR THE COAST.
2. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 16.8N 105.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 17.4N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.8N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 17.9N 110.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 16/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0600Z 17.9N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS/KELLY
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