536
WTPZ44 KNHC 150255
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
800 PM MST SAT JUN 14 2025
DALILA IS LIKELY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION EVIDENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65
KNOTS AND 55 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY. OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGED FROM
45 TO 57 KNOTS, WHILE AN ASCAT PASS EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOWED
NUMEROUS 50 KNOT WIND BARBS. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN HELD AT 55 KNOTS.
DALILA IS NOW HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, OR 295/10 KNOTS. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS DALILA IS
STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. A WESTWARD TO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION IS THEN
FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH DISSIPATION AS DALILA MOVES OVER MUCH
COOLER WATER. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS DALILA BECOMING A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT, AND DISSIPATING BY TUESDAY.
THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, AND GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE VARIOUS TRACK AIDS.
DALILA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. MORE
STEADY WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST SUNDAY ONWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACáN AND GUERRERO THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN NEAR THE COAST.
2. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 17.6N 106.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.9N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 17.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z 17.8N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1200Z 17.8N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER JELSEMA/CANGIALOSI
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