354
WTPZ44 KNHC 151434
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025
800 AM MST SUN JUN 15 2025
DALILA'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS DEGRADED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING, AND WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS
IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DECOUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED DUE
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE
PRESENTATION, SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
STARTED TO DROP-OFF, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
DALILA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST, AT AN ESTIMATED 295/8
KT. AS DALILA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER VORTEX, A
TURN TOWARDS THE WEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW.
THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS, NEAR THE
CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY WITHIN A COOLER SSTS AND A
DRIER, MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DALILA IS ALREADY STRUGGLING TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION AND SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TONIGHT. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING AND
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 18.2N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 18.3N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 16/1200Z 18.3N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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