354  
WTPZ44 KNHC 151434  
TCDEP4  
 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025  
800 AM MST SUN JUN 15 2025  
 
DALILA'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS DEGRADED SINCE THE PREVIOUS  
ADVISORY. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING, AND WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS  
IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED  
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DECOUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED DUE  
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE  
PRESENTATION, SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE  
STARTED TO DROP-OFF, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT  
FOR THIS ADVISORY.  
 
DALILA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST, AT AN ESTIMATED 295/8  
KT. AS DALILA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER VORTEX, A  
TURN TOWARDS THE WEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW.  
THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS, NEAR THE  
CONSENSUS AIDS.  
 
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY WITHIN A COOLER SSTS AND A  
DRIER, MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DALILA IS ALREADY STRUGGLING TO  
PRODUCE CONVECTION AND SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER  
TONIGHT. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING AND  
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 15/1500Z 18.2N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH  
12H 16/0000Z 18.3N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
24H 16/1200Z 18.3N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
36H 17/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
48H 17/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
60H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER KELLY  
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page