835
WTPZ45 KNHC 162052
TCDEP5
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
300 PM CST MON JUN 16 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
GUATEMALA HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED ELONGATED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER SOUTH OF A BURST OF MODEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON A PARTIAL OVERPASS OF
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND AFFECT SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY,
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/7 KT, BUT THIS IS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF A DEFINED CORE. THE LOW IS MOVING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTROL THE MOTION OF
THE SYSTEM FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS PREDICT THE LOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT, AND THAT MOTION SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THERE IS NOTICEABLE SPREAD IN THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE GFS AND SOME OF THE REGIONAL
MODELS SHOW A SLOWER MOTION WHILE THE ECMWF AND HCCA ANTICIPATE A
QUICKER FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSEST TO A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF, NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER AN AREA OF VERY WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. SHIPS-EC SHOWS A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF 55 KT OF STRENGTHENING IN 48 HR, WHICH HIGHLIGHTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE COMING DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST PREDICTS THE DISTURBANCE WILL BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM IN ABOUT A DAY AND A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC
FORECAST LIES NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDS UPON
LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER, IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN THE EXACT
LOCATION OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS, AND INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
NHC NOW HAS THE ABILITY TO ISSUE TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY PRODUCTS
FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES UP TO 72 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ON LAND WHEN
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF WIND OR STORM
SURGE IMPACTS TO LAND, REGARDLESS OF THE IMMEDIATE NEED FOR
LAND-BASED HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS,
PREVIOUSLY, POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES COULD BE ISSUED UP
TO 48 HOURS BEFOREHAND. APPROPRIATE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL
STILL BE ISSUED 48 AND 36 HOURS, RESPECTIVELY, BEFORE THE ONSET OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY
AND QUICKLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY AS IT
APPROACHES SOUTHERN MEXICO. HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY..
2. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK.
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 10.6N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0600Z 11.1N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 17/1800Z 11.8N 93.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 12.6N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 13.5N 95.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 14.5N 96.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 15.8N 97.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 17.0N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI/MORA/CANO
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