354  
WTPZ45 KNHC 170242  
TCDEP5  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025  
900 PM CST MON JUN 16 2025  
 
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE  
SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION, AND DEEP CONVECTION  
HAS BEEN CONSOLIDATING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. THEREFORE, THE  
SYSTEM NOW MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL  
INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM  
TAFB AND SAB.  
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KT. A SLOWER  
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY STEERING THE SYSTEM WEAKENS.  
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THE COMPLEXITY OF THE  
TRACK MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO MEANS THAT  
SMALL CHANGES IN THE SYSTEM'S HEADING WILL CAUSE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES  
ON WHERE AND WHEN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS WILL OCCUR.  
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE  
ENVELOPE AND IS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. USERS ARE  
REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE 60-HOUR NHC TRACK ERROR IS A LITTLE MORE  
THAN 60 N MI.  
 
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY IDEAL FOR INTENSIFICATION  
WITH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 KT,  
MID-LEVEL HUMIDITIES NEAR OR ABOVE 80 PERCENT, AND SSTS OVER 29  
C FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE  
SYSTEM STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY, AND GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE  
CONDITIONS, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A POSSIBILITY. THE NHC  
INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND SHOWS THE  
CYCLONE BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY TUESDAY AND A HURRICANE  
BEFORE IT REACHES MEXICO.  
 
BASED ON THIS FORECAST, A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED  
WESTWARD ON TUESDAY.  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY  
TUESDAY AND QUICKLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY AS IT  
APPROACHES SOUTHERN MEXICO. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  
 
2. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK.  
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN  
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.  
 
3. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR WHERE THE CENTER  
CROSSES THE COAST.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 17/0300Z 11.2N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH  
12H 17/1200Z 11.8N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH  
24H 18/0000Z 12.5N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH  
36H 18/1200Z 13.3N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH  
48H 19/0000Z 14.2N 96.3W 70 KT 80 MPH  
60H 19/1200Z 15.5N 97.4W 80 KT 90 MPH  
72H 20/0000Z 16.6N 98.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND  
96H 21/0000Z 18.3N 101.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND  
120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED  
 
 
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI  
 
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