234
AXPZ20 KNHC 170758 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025
CORRECTED OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
RECENTLY NAMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 11.2N
92.6W AT 17/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION BECOMING CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY NORTH AND NEAR THE
SYSTEM CENTER. THIS CONVECTION IS APPEARING TO BE DEVELOPING
INTO BANDING-TYPE FEATURES, AND OVER THE SYSTEM PATTERN IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL WITH TIME. THE NOTED
CONVECTION WITHIN THE FORMING BANDING FEATURES CONSISTS OF THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG INTENSITY-TYPE FROM 13N
TO 15N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE N QUADRANT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND
95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY BELOW 12 FT (4 M),
HOWEVER, ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL WITHIN 30 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION. A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY LATE WED. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY TUE AND A
HURRICANE ON WED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 6 INCHES, ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA AND THE MEXICAN
STATES OF CHIAPAS, TABASCO AND VERACRUZ. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A DAY
OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FIVE-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTHWARD ALONG 82W TO ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA N OF
05N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 05N
TO 09N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO THE
COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 09N84W, AND CONTINUES TO 10N88W. IT RESUMES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E NEAR 12N98W AND
CONTINUES TO 12N110W TO 09N123W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 09N130W AND TO 10N140W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W-
132W, WITHIN 60 NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 112W-114W AND WITHIN
60 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 139W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
CORRECTED
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
RECENTLY NAMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E.
ELSEWHERE, THE REMNANT LOW OF DALILA IS ANALYZED WITH A PRESSURE
OF 1011 MB NEAR 19N112W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE QUADRANT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS ARE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 113W AND 114W ALONG WITH
SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AWAY FROM THE REMNANTS OF DALILA. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF, AND SLIGHT
SEAS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE IMPACTED AREAS RELATED TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E, THE REMNANTS OF DALILA WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN DOWN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ROUGH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH SWELL WILL BUILD OVER THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THE SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED BY A NEW SET OF NORTHWEST
TO NORTH STARTING FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE DURING THE PERIOD.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON RECENTLY
NAMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE FROM OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA NORTHWARD, WITH MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS,
WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E, WHICH
MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL
DESCRIBED ABOVE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE
MODERATE OR WEAKER OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD, EXCEPT PULSE TO
MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION STARTING THU MORNING.
MEANWHILE, MODERATE SEAS OFF ECUADOR WILL PREVAILS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. MODERATE SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
NORTHWARD THROUGH WED, EXCEPT HIGHER NEAR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FIVE-E, SUBSIDING AFTERWARD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
RECENTLY NAMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E.
BROAD AND WEAK RIDGING EXTEND FROM A HIGH WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA TO ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ AND WEST OF THE REMNANTS OF DALILA CENTERED NEAR
19N110.5W. WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS, BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ,
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. SEAS ARE
MAINLY MODERATE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS IN MIXED SOUTHERLY AND
NORTHERLY SWELLS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SINK
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WILL EXPAND
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SEAS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS EAST OF 130W THROUGH
THU AS NEW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WELL MOVES INTO THE REGIONAL
WATERS, SPREADING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 140W BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AGUIRRE
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