376  
WTPZ45 KNHC 170848  
TCDEP5  
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 3  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025  
300 AM CST TUE JUN 17 2025  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING  
BETTER ORGANIZED. TAFB DETERMINED A DVORAK DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5  
WHICH IS CONFIRMED FROM A SPIRAL BANDING MEASUREMENT OF ROUGHLY A  
0.5 WRAP ON ENHANCED IR IMAGES. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE  
IS SET AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, AND THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED.  
 
BASED ON THE LATEST CENTER FIXES, THE MOTION REMAINS 300/10 KT, AS  
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE  
STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN A BIT BY THE GLOBAL MODELS, AND THIS  
SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A  
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD  
AGREEMENT AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. IT SHOULD  
BE NOTED THAT THE COMPLEXITY OF THE TRACK MOVING PARALLEL TO THE  
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO MEANS THAT SMALL CHANGES IN THE SYSTEM'S  
HEADING WILL CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN WHERE AND WHEN THE  
MOST SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK  
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE  
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE 60-HOUR NHC  
TRACK ERROR IS A LITTLE MORE THAN 60 N MI.  
 
ERICK IS SITUATED IN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT WHICH  
APPEARS TO BE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING, WITH LOW SHEAR,  
WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 DEG C AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC HUMIDITIES OF  
75-80 PERCENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER  
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT SOME OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS  
EVEN MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THAT. MOREOVER, THE VARIOUS RAPID  
INTENSIFICATION (RI) INDICES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RI  
BEFORE LANDFALL. THUS, THE NHC FORECAST FOR THE PEAK STRENGTH OF  
ERICK COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE  
REACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, WHERE A HURRICANE WATCH IS  
IN EFFECT.  
 
2. ERICK WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK.  
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN  
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.  
 
3. A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR WHERE THE  
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 17/0900Z 11.9N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH  
12H 17/1800Z 12.5N 94.4W 45 KT 50 MPH  
24H 18/0600Z 13.2N 95.3W 55 KT 65 MPH  
36H 18/1800Z 14.0N 96.4W 65 KT 75 MPH  
48H 19/0600Z 15.3N 97.6W 85 KT 100 MPH  
60H 19/1800Z 16.8N 99.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND  
72H 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND  
96H 21/0600Z 20.0N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND  
120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER PASCH  
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page