451
WTPZ35 KNHC 171144
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
600 AM CST TUE JUN 17 2025
...ERICK EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE
APPROACHING THE COASTS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 93.8W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAHIAS DE HUATULCO TO PUNTA MALDONADO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF BAHIAS DE HUATULCO TO SALINA CRUZ
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A SLOWER
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM ERICK CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM ERICK COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES, ACROSS THE MEXICAN
STATES OF CHIAPAS, OAXACA, AND GUERRERO AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF
GUATEMALA. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MEXICO, EL
SALVADOR, INTERIOR GUATEMALA AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS,
TABASCO AND VERACRUZ.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM ERICK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
STORM SURGE: STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR WHERE
THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.
FORECASTER BERG
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