074
WTPZ45 KNHC 172032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
300 PM CST TUE JUN 17 2025
ERICK HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WITH AN EXTENDED CLOUD BAND CURLING ONE REVOLUTION AROUND
THE CENTER. HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO SOME EVIDENCE OF A DRY SLOT
FILTERING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTHEAST, AND POSSIBLY AS
A RESULT, INFRARED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE BAND ARE NOT AS
COLD AS THEY COULD BE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE
RISEN TO T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB, BUT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD CONSERVATIVELY AT 45 KT SINCE OBJECTIVE
NUMBERS ARE CLOSEST TO THE TAFB ESTIMATE.
THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED NORTHWESTWARD (310 DEGREES) AND
IS MOVING AROUND 6 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE, AND A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, SHOULD
KEEP ERICK ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND TVCE CONSENSUS AIDS, AND
IT A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION. BECAUSE OF THE
OBLIQUE ANGLE OF ERICK'S TRACK RELATIVE TO THE COAST, IT IS
IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS MIGHT OCCUR,
BUT IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THEY WILL OCCUR IN THE
AREA OF WESTERN OAXACA OR EASTERN GUERRERO STATES.
DESPITE THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN, THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW WIND
SHEAR, HIGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT RAPID STRENGTHENING. ERICK ALSO HAS THE
STRUCTURE TO ENABLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AND IT MAY ONLY TAKE
MIXING OUT SOME OF THE DRY AIR FOR THAT PROCESS TO BEGIN. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) INDICES FELL A LITTLE ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE,
MAINLY DUE TO A NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE INFLUX OF DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. HOWEVER, ASSUMING THIS DRY AIR CAN MIX OUT,
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE
GUIDANCE (CLOSEST TO HCCA AND HMON), AND STILL SHOWS ERICK NEAR OR
AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY, AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF OAXACA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE GUERRERO COAST.
2. ERICK WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.
3. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST, IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 12.9N 94.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 13.3N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 14.2N 96.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 15.4N 97.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 99.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/0600Z 18.3N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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