889
WTPZ45 KNHC 180240
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
900 PM CST TUE JUN 17 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ERICK IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
WELL-ORGANIZED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND COOLED, WITH
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATING CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85 C
NEAR THE CENTER. A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED AN IMPROVED
INNER-CORE STRUCTURE, INCLUDING A DEVELOPING CURVED BAND. THE LATEST
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0 AND T4.0, RESPECTIVELY,
AND OBJECTIVE ADT VALUES ARE APPROACHING T3.5. IN ADDITION,
JUST-RECEIVED SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR DATA INDICATE WINDS NEAR
50 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY TO REPRESENT A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES.
ERICK IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 310/6 KT. THIS SLOWING IN
FORWARD SPEED IS CONSISTENT WITH A WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH, CAUSED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CENTER OF ERICK APPROACHING THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL TRACK IS RELATIVELY HIGH, SMALL DEVIATIONS COULD LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WHERE AND WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
COASTAL IMPACTS OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS
OF THE HCCA AND TVCE AIDS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
TRACK.
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ERICK REMAINS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 C,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. SEVERAL
DYNAMIC REGIONAL MODELS BRING ERICK TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH
BEFORE LANDFALL, AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING
IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER
END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BUT COULD STILL BE SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE, ESPECIALLY IF THE CURRENT TREND OF IMPROVED STRUCTURE
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY, AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO COAST.
2. ERICK WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.
3. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST, IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 13.1N 94.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 13.7N 95.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 14.7N 96.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.0N 98.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 17.4N 100.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/1200Z 18.8N 101.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS/BUCCI
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