001
WTPZ45 KNHC 180834
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
300 AM CST WED JUN 18 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN ERICK’S
STRUCTURE, WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY WITHIN THE
INNER-CORE REGION. A RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMED A
BETTER-ORGANIZED INNER CORE, CONSISTENT WITH THE OBSERVED
INTENSIFICATION TREND. ALTHOUGH ASCAT DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO
SAMPLED ABOUT 40-KT PEAK WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, ERICK
HAS STRENGTHENED SINCE THAT TIME. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T3.5 FROM TAFB AND T4.5 FROM
SAB, WHILE THE OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS HAS INCREASED TO
NEAR 60 KT AND CONTINUES TO RISE. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ERICK IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 310/6 KT. THIS RELATIVELY
SLOW FORWARD MOTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS,
CONSISTENT WITH A WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL, WHICH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TRACK IS RELATIVELY
HIGH. THAT SAID, SMALL TRACK DEVIATIONS COULD STILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WHERE AND WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
COASTAL IMPACTS OCCUR DUE TO THE OBLIQUE ANGLE OF APPROACH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALIGNS CLOSELY WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HCCA AND
TVCE AIDS AND REMAINS NEAR THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ERICK REMAINS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 C,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. SEVERAL
DYNAMIC REGIONAL MODELS PROJECT ERICK TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL, AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI)
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAPID
STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS
NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BUT COULD STILL BE
SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE, ESPECIALLY IF THE CURRENT TREND OF IMPROVED
STRUCTURE CONTINUES TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY, AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO.
2. ERICK WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.
3. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST, IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0900Z 13.3N 95.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 13.9N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 15.0N 97.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/0600Z 18.0N 100.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS/BLAKE
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