370
AXPZ20 KNHC 181605
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE ERICK IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 96.0W,
OR ABOUT 130 NM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL, MEXICO, AT 18/1500 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90
KT. ERICK IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONTINUES
TO EXHIBIT LARGER AND DEEPER CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS GENERALLY PRESENT WITHIN ABOUT 120
NM OF THE CENTER. PEAK SEAS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING, AND ARE NOW
LIKELY AROUND 25 FT (7.5 M). ERICK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NW WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL,
WHICH ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, WILL BE EARLY THU ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AND
ERICK IS FORECAST TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
NAVIGATING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND
TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS RELATED TO HURRICANE ERICK.
HURRICANE ERICK IS LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 20 INCHES, ACROSS THE
MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO
LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 8 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF
CHIAPAS, MICHOACAN, COLIMA AND JALISCO. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ERICK NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO
ACROSS THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER AND TO 12N88W. IT RESUMES
SOUTHWEST OF HURRICANE ERICK NEAR 09N100W TO 10N113W AND TO
09N125W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO
09N130W AND TO BEYOND 08N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED
TO TROPICAL STORM ERICK, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON HURRICANE ERICK.
ELSEWHERE, A WEAK TROUGH, REMNANTS OF DALILA, IS ANALYZED FROM
NEAR 21N114W TO NEAR 17N117W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTION WHERE
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE PRESENT. SEAS ARE
3 FT ARE LESS OVER THE GULF, EXCEPT FOR SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT OVER
THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE GULF. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ALONG WITH THESE WINDS ROUGH NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL
WILL BUILD OVER THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE SWELL WILL
BE REINFORCED BY A NEW SET OF NORTHWEST TO NORTH STARTING FRI.
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TODAY.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE FROM OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
NORTHWARD, WITH MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WITH MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE ERICK IS NOW WELL
NW OF THE AREA, TO THE SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC, MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE TODAY. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHILE EXPANDING WESTWARD. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR
WEAKER OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD, EXCEPT PULSE TO MOSTLY FRESH
SPEEDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION STARTING THU MORNING. MEANWHILE,
MODERATE SEAS OFF ECUADOR WILL SUBSIDE SOME WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON CONDITIONS
RELATED TO HURRICANE ERICK.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTEND FROM A HIGH WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA TO ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ AND WEST OF ABOUT 115W. WINDS ARE MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS, BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, LOCALLY FRESH SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. SEAS ARE MAINLY MODERATE ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS IN MIXED SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY SWELLS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WIL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS EAST OF 130W THROUGH THU
AS NEW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WELL MOVES INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS,
SPREADING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 140W BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
KONARIK
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