345
WTPZ45 KNHC 182034
TCDEP5
HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
300 PM CST WED JUN 18 2025
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COMPLETED ITS MISSION INTO
ERICK THIS MORNING AND FOUND 93-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB
ALONG WITH A DROPSONDE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 971 MB AROUND 17Z. THE
RECON DATA SHOWED STRENGTHENING IN BETWEEN THE 1530Z FIX AND THE 17Z
FIX. AN EYE HAS BEEN PRESENT IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SINCE ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING, AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE EYE CONTINUING TO BECOME MORE CIRCULAR WITH WARMING EYE
TEMPERATURES. THE EYE IS NEARLY COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. AS A RESULT,
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN INCREASING QUICKLY. THE
18Z SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB RANGE FROM 90-102
KT. RECENT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE
95-100 KT RANGE. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DATA, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KT, AND THIS MIGHT BE A BIT
CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD, OR 315/8 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION, ALONG WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT ACCELERATION, IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LANDFALL, WHICH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. ERICK HAS BEEN MOVING
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST, AND AS A RESULT,
THE NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS LANDFALL SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD,
CLOSE TO THE LATEST TVCE AND HCCA CONSENSUS AIDS. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH.
ERICK HAS BEEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
ALONG ERICK'S FORECAST TRACK, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT
TERM APPEARS VERY LIKELY. THE 12Z HAFS MODELS AND THE 18Z SHIPS
GUIDANCE HAVE ERICK BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON. THE VARIOUS
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES ALL SHOW GREATER THAN A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF 20 KT STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 12 H. THE NEW
NHC FORECAST SHOWS 110 KT AT 12 H, WHICH IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ERICK COULD
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN FORECAST.
THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN
THE HURRICANE IN A FEW HOURS, AROUND 2330 UTC TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ERICK CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A
MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST OF WESTERN OAXACA OR
EASTERN GUERRERO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY. DEVASTATING WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE CORE
OF THE STORM MOVES ONSHORE. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY
DETERIORATING, AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION BEFORE SUNSET.
2. ERICK WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.
3. A DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST, IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 14.5N 96.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 15.5N 97.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 17.0N 98.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/0600Z 18.5N 100.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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