140
AXPZ20 KNHC 182112
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 18 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ERICK HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY TWO STORM AND IS
CENTERED NEAR NEAR 14.5N 96.5W AT 18/2100 UTC, OR ABOUT 90 NM S
OF PUERTO ANGEL, MEXICO. ERICK IS MOVING NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. ERICK CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
INTENSIFICATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A DISTINCT EYE HAS BEEN
PRESENT MOST OF TODAY, SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT
150 NM OF THE EYE. PEAK SEAS ARE INCREASING, AND ARE NOW LIKELY
AROUND 25 FT (7.5 M). ERICK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL, WHICH ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, WILL BE EARLY THU MORNING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AND
ERICK IS FORECAST TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS TONIGHT.
MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION NAVIGATING THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION
TO AVOID THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RELATED TO HURRICANE
ERICK.
HURRICANE ERICK IS LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 16 INCHES, ACROSS THE
MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO
LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF
CHIAPAS, MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO. SWELLS GENERATED BY
ERICK ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ERICK NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA
BORDER NEAR 08N82W TO 11N88W. IT RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE ERICK
NEAR 09N100W THEN CONTINUES TO 10N130W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS TO BEYOND 08N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
RELATED TO HURRICANE ERICK, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
SEEN WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON HURRICANE ERICK.
ELSEWHERE, A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 21N114W TO NEAR
17N117W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS ARE SPILLING S OF 30N JUST W OF ISLA
GUADALUPE, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MAINLY
GENTLE WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 FT
OR LESS. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF OFFSHORE
WATERS, EXCEPT SOME ROUGH SEAS ARE IMPACTING THE FAR NW WATERS,
WHERE NORTHERLY SWELL IS BUILDING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRESH WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ALONG WITH THESE WINDS ROUGH NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL
WILL BUILD OVER THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE SWELL WILL
BE REINFORCED BY A NEW SET OF NORTHWEST TO NORTH STARTING FRI.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER FROM OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD,
WITH MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WITH MODERATE
SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHILE EXPANDING WESTWARD. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD, EXCEPT PULSE TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION STARTING THU MORNING. MEANWHILE, MODERATE
SEAS OFF ECUADOR WILL SUBSIDE SOME TONIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON CONDITIONS
RELATED TO HURRICANE ERICK.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS NORTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AND WEST OF ABOUT 115W. WINDS ARE
MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS, BOTH NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, LOCALLY FRESH SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. SEAS ARE MAINLY MODERATE ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS IN MIXED SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY SWELLS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS EAST OF 130W THROUGH THU AS
NEW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WELL MOVES INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS,
SPREADING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 140W BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
KONARIK
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