601
WTPZ35 KNHC 190242
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
900 PM CST WED JUN 18 2025
..MAJOR HURRICANE ERICK HEADING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO
...EXPECTED TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 97.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO PUERTO ANGEL
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUERTO ANGEL TO SALINA CRUZ
* WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12-24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERICK.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERICK IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF OAXACA OR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF GUERRERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AND
THEN CONTINUE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERICK IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, ERICK SHOULD RAPIDLY
WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO, AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB (28.06 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR HURRICANE ERICK CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPZ45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: ERICK WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES, WITH
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 16 INCHES, ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND
GUERRERO. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS, MICHOACAN, COLIMA AND JALISCO.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ERICK,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BEGINNING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND THEY ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY SPREADING ONSHORE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
BEGINNING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN THE NEAR-SURFACE WINDS INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY, AND
IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS COULD BE EVEN GREATER.
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST, IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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