834
WTPZ45 KNHC 190243
TCDEP5
HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
900 PM CST WED JUN 18 2025
ERICK'S RAPID INTENSIFICATION CONTINUED THROUGH 18/23Z. AS AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR THAT TIME REPORTED
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 953 MB. HOWEVER, SINCE
THAT TIME, THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE WENT THROUGH
A PERIOD WHEN IT WAS A LITTLE DEGRADED, SUGGESTING THAT THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE MAY HAVE SLOWED. THIS MAY BE DUE TO AN
ATTEMPTED EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, AS THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTED
CONCENTRIC WIND MAXIMA DURING ITS PASS THROUGH THE CENTER. THE
INTENSITY IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, AS THE PLANE HAD TO ABORT DUE TO
COMPUTER PROBLEMS BEFORE IT COULD PROBE THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL.
BASED ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE, THE OBSERVED WIND STRUCTURE, AND THE
VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
TO A POSSIBLY CONSERVATIVE 110 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD AT 320/8 KT. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE STATE OF
OAXACA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 H, WITH A SUBSEQUENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
BRINGING THE SYSTEM FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME
AS FOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS A
SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION AND MOTION.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING, AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ERICK COULD GET STRONGER BEFORE LANDFALL IF THE
POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COMPLETES. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION, RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL, AND
ERICK IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ERICK CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE. IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE OF OAXACA OR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE OF GUERRERO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. DEVASTATING WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE CORE
OF THE STORM MOVES ONSHORE. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY
DETERIORATING, AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
2. ERICK WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.
3. A DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST, IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 15.2N 97.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0000Z 17.8N 99.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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