150
AXPZ20 KNHC 190404
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR HURRICANE ERICK IS CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 97.1W AT 19/0300
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO
135 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ERICK IS CONTINUING TO
QUICKLY STRENGTHEN AS NOTED IN ITS SYMMETRICAL OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE CENTER IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
IN OUTER BANDS ARE SEEN NORTH OF 11N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. PEAK
SEAS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD, AND ARE NOW LIKELY REACHING AROUND
36 FT (11 M). ERICK IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOTION
THROUGH THROUGH THU NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
ERICK IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
MEXICAN STATE OF OAXACA OR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MEXICAN
STATE OF GUERRERO EARLY THU MORNING, AND THEN CONTINUE INLAND
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON THU. ERICK IS A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL. MARINERS
SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION NAVIGATING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION TO AVOID THE
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RELATED TO HURRICANE ERICK.
AFTER LANDFALL, ERICK SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF MEXICO, AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE THU NIGHT OR
EARLY ON FRI. ERICK WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 16 INCHES, ACROSS THE MEXICAN
STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS,
MICHOACAN, COLIMA AND JALISCO. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK WILL
CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THU.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ERICK NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO
ACROSS SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND NORTHWESTWARD TO 12N91W. IT
RESUMES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HURRICANE ERICK AT 12N101W AND
CONTINUES TO 13N114W TO 10N130W AND TO 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
85W-111W, ALSO WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 114W-118W
AND WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 136W-140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON HURRICANE ERICK.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS,
EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF
ABOUT 27N. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT SOME ROUGH SEAS ARE
IMPACTING THE FAR NW WATERS, WHERE NORTHERLY SWELL IS BUILDING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRESH WINDS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE SEEN JUST INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM JUST
EAST OF ACAPULCO TO THE STATES OF JALISCO AND NAYARIT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ALONG WITH THESE WINDS ROUGH NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL
WILL BUILD OVER THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE SWELL WILL
BE REINFORCED BY A NEW SET OF NORTHWEST TO NORTH STARTING FRI.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER FROM OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD,
WITH MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WITH MODERATE
SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHILE EXPANDING WESTWARD. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD, EXCEPT PULSE TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION STARTING THU MORNING. MEANWHILE, MODERATE
SEAS OFF ECUADOR WILL SUBSIDE SOME TONIGHT, AND MODERATE SEAS
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WILL
SUBSIDE THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON CONDITIONS
RELATED TO HURRICANE ERICK.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS NORTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W. MOSTLY
MODERATE TRADES ARE NORTH OF ABOUT 14N WEST OF 130W WHILE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NORTH OF 17N AND BETWEEN A LINE FROM
26N119W TO 17N125W AND 130W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITH THESE
WINDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A NEW AND LARGER SET OF
NORTH SWELL PROPAGATES THROUGH THOSE WATERS. THE SWELL WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST IN DIRECTION AS IT
SPREADS TO THE WEST OF 127W, CROSSING 140W DURING THE WEEKEND.
AGUIRRE
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