260  
WTPZ35 KNHC 190544  
TCPEP5  
 
BULLETIN  
HURRICANE ERICK SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 11  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025  
1200 AM CST THU JUN 19 2025  
   
..ERICK NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE  
 
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION  
-----------------------------------------------  
LOCATION...15.5N 97.5W  
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO  
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H  
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H  
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES  
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS  
--------------------  
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:  
 
NONE.  
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:  
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...  
* ACAPULCO TO PUERTO ANGEL  
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...  
* WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...  
* EAST OF PUERTO ANGEL TO SALINA CRUZ  
* WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA  
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE  
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN  
12-24 HOURS.  
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS  
OF ERICK.  
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR  
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.  
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK  
----------------------  
AT 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED  
NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING  
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION  
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE  
CENTER OF ERICK IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN PORTION  
OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF OAXACA OR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MEXICAN  
STATE OF GUERRERO THIS MORNING, AND THEN CONTINUE INLAND OVER  
SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH (230 KM/H)  
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERICK IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE  
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING  
COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, ERICK SHOULD RAPIDLY  
WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO, AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO  
DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.  
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE  
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES  
(150 KM).  
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 MB (27.73 INCHES).  
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  
----------------------  
KEY MESSAGES FOR HURRICANE ERICK CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL  
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER  
WTPZ45 KNHC.  
 
RAINFALL: ERICK WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES, WITH  
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 16 INCHES, ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND  
GUERRERO. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND  
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF  
2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS  
THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS, MICHOACAN, COLIMA AND JALISCO.  
 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ERICK,  
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC  
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF  
 
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING  
AREA BEGINNING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH EXTREMELY  
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS NEAR THE CORE OF ERICK. HURRICANE CONDITIONS  
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM  
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING ONSHORE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING  
AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM  
WARNING AREA BEGINNING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND SPEEDS ATOP  
AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30  
PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE NEAR-SURFACE WINDS INDICATED IN THIS  
ADVISORY, AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS COULD BE EVEN GREATER.  
 
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED  
TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER  
CROSSES THE COAST, IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE  
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.  
 
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF  
SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO  
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE  
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.  
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY  
-------------  
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 AM CST.  
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.  
 
 
FORECASTER PASCH  
 
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