459
WTPZ45 KNHC 190544
TCDEP5
HURRICANE ERICK SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
1200 AM CST THU JUN 19 2025
THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY MAINLY TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY OF ERICK.
AFTER AN EARLIER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT, SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
VERY DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE.
USING A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE ADT DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SATCON VALUES
FROM UW/CIMSS YIELDS A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 125 KT, WHICH
IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE INTERACTION
WITH LAND SHOULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. ERICK WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL.
A SLIGHT LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK BASED
ON THE RECENT MOTION, WHICH IS NOW 305/8 KT.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE 06Z
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ERICK IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE, AND
DEVASTATING WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY WHERE THE CORE MOVES ONSHORE.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY DETERIORATING IN THE WARNING AREA,
AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.
2. ERICK WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.
3. A DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST, IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0600Z 15.5N 97.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 98.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0000Z 17.4N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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