650
WTPZ45 KNHC 190852
TCDEP5
HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
300 AM CST THU JUN 19 2025
ERICK IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
ITS RAPID STRENGTHENING EPISODE HAS ENDED, LIKELY DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, AND THE INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 120 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS. ERICK REMAINS AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. HOWEVER, RAPID WEAKENING
WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
SMOOTHING OUT THE TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES IN THE TRACK, THE MOTION
ESTIMATE, 310/8 KT, REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. THIS GENERAL
MOTION, ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE, IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST CORRECTED CONSENSUS, HCCA, GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ERICK IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE, AND
DEVASTATING WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY NEAR ITS CORE. TAKE SHELTER IN
THE INTERIOR PORTION OF A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE AND REMAIN SHELTERED
UNTIL AFTER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS PASS.
2. ERICK WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
3. A DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST, IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 15.9N 97.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0600Z 17.5N 99.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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