204
AXPZ20 KNHC 190914
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
MAJOR CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ERICK IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 97.9W
AT 19/0900 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS
DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ERICK REMAINS A RATHER COMPACT SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE IMAGERY REVEALS
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 06N
BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. PEAK SEAS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD, AND ARE
NOW LIKELY REACHING AROUND 38 FT (11 M). ERICK IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF
OAXACA OR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF GUERRERO
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND THEN CONTINUE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO LATER TODAY. AFTER LANDFALL, ERICK SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO, AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRI.
ERICK WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES, WITH
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 16 INCHES, ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND
GUERRERO. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS, MICHOACAN, COLIMA AND JALISCO. SWELLS
GENERATED BY ERICK WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ERICK NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO
ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND NORTHWESTWARD TO 12N90W. IT
RESUMES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HURRICANE ERICK AT 12N101W AND
CONTINUES TO 13N112W TO 13N122W TO 10N130W AND TO 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 102W-112W, ALSO WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 123W-131W AND WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
136W-140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON HURRICANE ERICK.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS,
EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF
ABOUT 27N. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE PRESENT.
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF OFFSHORE WATERS,
EXCEPT SOME ROUGH SEAS ARE IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHWEST WATERS,
WHERE NORTHERLY SWELL IS BUILDING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRESH WINDS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE SEEN JUST INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM JUST
EAST OF ACAPULCO TO THE OF STATS OF JALISCO. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING HEAVY THAT IS REDUCING VISIBILITY NEAR
THE COAST.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ALONG WITH THESE WINDS ROUGH NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL
WILL BUILD OVER THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE SWELL WILL
BE REINFORCED BY A NEW SET OF NORTHWEST TO NORTH STARTING FRI.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER FROM OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD,
WITH MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WITH MODERATE
SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHILE EXPANDING WESTWARD. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD, EXCEPT PULSE TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION STARTING THU MORNING. MEANWHILE, MODERATE
SEAS OFF ECUADOR WILL SUBSIDE SOME TONIGHT, AND MODERATE SEAS
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WILL
SUBSIDE THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON CONDITIONS
RELATED TO HURRICANE ERICK.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS NORTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W. MOSTLY
MODERATE TRADES ARE NORTH OF ABOUT 14N WEST OF 130W WHILE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NORTH OF 17N AND BETWEEN A LINE FROM
26N119W TO 17N125W AND 130W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITH THESE
WINDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A NEW AND LARGER SET OF
NORTH SWELL PROPAGATES THROUGH THOSE WATERS. THE SWELL WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST IN DIRECTION AS IT
SPREADS TO THE WEST OF 127W, CROSSING 140W DURING THE WEEKEND.
AGUIRRE
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