745
WTPZ45 KNHC 191438
TCDEP5
HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
900 AM CST THU JUN 19 2025
ERICK MADE LANDFALL IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF SANTIAGO PINOTEPA
NACIONAL IN EXTREME WESTERN OAXACA, MEXICO, AROUND 1130 UTC THIS
MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 110 KT
(125 MPH). IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAJOR HURRICANE'S STRUCTURE
WAS DEGRADING AS IT APPROACHED THE COAST. IN FACT, THE EYE FEATURE
WAS NOT APPARENT AT THE LANDFALL TIME, MAKING THE EXACT LOCATION AND
TIME THAT ERICK CROSSED THE COAST UNCERTAIN. ERICK WAS THE EARLIEST
MAJOR HURRICANE LANDFALL IN MEXICO SINCE RECORDS BEGAN, AND THAT
INCLUDES BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC COASTS.
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY WEAKENING SINCE IT MADE LANDFALL.
THE INNER CORE APPEARS TO BE COLLAPSING WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING NEAR
THE CENTER. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
INNER CORE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 75 KT, BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
AROUND THAT VALUE. CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND FARTHER INLAND, AND ERICK IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY
TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE RAPIDLY,
HEAVY RAINS WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO. SO FAR, THERE HAS BEEN A REPORT OF ABOUT 250 MM (10 IN) OF
RAIN IN EL MARQUES IN OAXACA, AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ERICK WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO MAINLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
2. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, WILL CONTINUE FOR A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
3. STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 16.7N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
12H 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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