760
AXPZ20 KNHC 191545
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUN 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ERICK IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 98.8W AT 19/1500 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90
KT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERICK IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO UNTIL IT DISSIPATES
TONIGHT. A DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK WILL
CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ERICK NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N91W. IT RESUMES SW
OF ERICK NEAR 13N101W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON HURRICANE ERICK.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS,
EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF
ABOUT 27N. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WHERE SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE FRESH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE PRESENT.
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF OFFSHORE WATERS,
EXCEPT SOME ROUGH SEAS ARE IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHWEST WATERS,
WHERE NORTHERLY SWELL IS BUILDING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRESH WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF THE IMPACTS OF ERICK, HIGH PRESSURE
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT PULSING MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALONG WITH THESE
WINDS ROUGH NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL WILL BUILD OVER THE BAJA
WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED BY A NEW
SET OF NORTHWEST TO NORTH STARTING FRI.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER FROM OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD,
WITH MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WITH MODERATE SEAS IN
SOUTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WHILE EXPANDING WESTWARD. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD, EXCEPT PULSE TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION STARTING THU MORNING. MEANWHILE, MODERATE
SEAS OFF ECUADOR WILL SUBSIDE SOME TONIGHT, AND MODERATE SEAS
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR WILL
SUBSIDE THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON CONDITIONS
RELATED TO HURRICANE ERICK.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS NORTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W. MOSTLY
MODERATE TRADES ARE NORTH OF ABOUT 14N WEST OF 130W WHILE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NORTH OF 17N AND BETWEEN A LINE FROM
26N119W TO 17N125W AND 130W. SEAS ARE MODERATE WITH THESE WINDS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A NEW AND LARGER SET OF
NORTH SWELL PROPAGATES THROUGH THOSE WATERS. THE SWELL WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST IN DIRECTION AS IT
SPREADS TO THE WEST OF 127W, CROSSING 140W DURING THE WEEKEND.
ERA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page