464
WTPZ45 KNHC 192032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025
300 PM CST THU JUN 19 2025
ERICK CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER
THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE INNER CORE HAS NOW NEARLY
COMPLETELY COLLAPSED, AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME
QUITE RAGGED. BASED ON THE DEGRADED APPEARANCE AND DECREASING
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
45 KT, MAKING ERICK A TROPICAL STORM.
CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS ERICK CONTINUES
NORTHWESTWARD. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH ERICK IS NO LONGER A HURRICANE, HEAVY RAINS WILL LINGER
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ERICK WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO MAINLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 17.4N 99.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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