530
AXPZ20 KNHC 192110
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ERICK IS CENTERED INLAND NEAR 17.4N 99.7W AT
19/2100 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
TONIGHT. SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ERICK NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N90W. IT RESUMES SW
OF ERICK NEAR 13N101W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON T.S. ERICK.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS,
EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NORTH OF
ABOUT 27N. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WHERE SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE FRESH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE PRESENT.
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF OFFSHORE WATERS,
EXCEPT SOME ROUGH SEAS ARE IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHWEST WATERS,
WHERE NORTHERLY SWELL IS BUILDING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRESH WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF THE IMPACTS OF ERICK, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT PULSING MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALONG WITH
THESE WINDS, ROUGH NORTH SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE WATERS THIS EVENING, THEN BE REINFORCED BY A NEW AND
LARGER SET OF NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELL STARTING FRI.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER FROM OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD,
WITH MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WITH MODERATE SEAS IN
SOUTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE ECUADOR
TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE
EXPANDING WESTWARD. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA NORTHWARD, EXCEPT PULSE TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE WINDS MAY REACH
STRONG SPEEDS ON MON NIGHT. MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS NORTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AND WEST OF ABOUT 120W. MOSTLY
MODERATE TRADES ARE NORTH OF ABOUT 14N WEST OF 130W WHILE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NORTH OF 17N AND BETWEEN A LINE FROM
26N119W TO 17N125W AND 130W. SEAS ARE MODERATE WITH THESE WINDS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A NEW AND LARGER SET OF
NORTH SWELL PROPAGATES THROUGH THOSE WATERS. THE SWELL WILL
BECOME MORE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST IN DIRECTION AS IT
SPREADS TO THE WEST OF 125W, CROSSING 140W DURING THE WEEKEND.
ERA
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