045
AXPZ20 KNHC 200255
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK IS CENTERED INLAND NEAR 18.0N 100.8W
AT 20/0300 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERICK
CONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS
GUERRERO, THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE
OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REMNANT SURFACE CENTER,
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN, AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD OFF THE COASTS TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 104.5W. STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS TO 25 KT ARE ASSUMED TO BE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM
OF THE COAST AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF MOST OF GUERRERO.
WAVES ALONG THE COAST AND STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE SUBSIDING, LARGE AND ROUGH
SURF AND VERY STRONG CURRENTS ARE PRODUCING LIFE- THREATENING RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ERICK NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N74W TO 08.5N79W TO 12N90W,
THEN RESUMES SW OF ERICK NEAR 12.5N103W TO 10.5N127W TO BEYOND
08.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG
THE COASTAL ZONES E OF 78.5W, AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST
BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALSO NOTED FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 92.5W AND 113.5W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 119W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL NW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ALONG 145W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 23N117W.
THIS PATTERN IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS
NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS, AND MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS NW WINDS
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS TO THE SOUTH, EXCEPT FOR FRESH
WESTERLY WINDS NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
PREVAIL FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO CABO CORRIENTES AND ACROSS
THE WATERS OF MICHOACAN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF OFFSHORE
WATERS, EXCEPT HIGHER SEAS TO 8 FT ARE IMPACTING THE FAR
NORTHWEST WATERS, WHERE NEW NORTHERLY SWELL IS BUILDING IN ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA NORTE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OUTSIDE OF THE IMPACTS OF ERICK, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ALONG WITH THESE WINDS, N SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS THIS EVENING, THEN BE REINFORCED BY
LARGER NW TO N SWELL STARTING FRI. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INSIDE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SW TO W WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER FROM OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
NORTHWARD TO 10N, WITH MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS,
WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL. MODERATE TO FRESH NE GAP
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION OFFSHORE TO NEAR 88W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE S TO SW WINDS OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE EXPANDING WESTWARD. WINDS WILL BE
MODERATE OR WEAKER OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD TO 10N DURING THIS
TIME. NORTH OF 10N, EXPECT GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
TO PULSE TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO STRONG SPEEDS ON MON NIGHT. MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 37N145W, LOCATED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AND
WEST OF ABOUT 117W. MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES ARE NORTH OF ABOUT
16N WEST OF 130W, WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE
NORTH OF 20N AND BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. MODERATE TO 8 FT IN MIXED
SE AND N SWELL PREVAIL SOUTH OF 24N, WHILE SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 8
TO 9 FT IN NEW N TO NE SWELL NORTH OF 24N, AND 9 TO 10 FT NORTH
OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LARGER N TO NE SWELL
PROPAGATES THROUGH THOSE WATERS, SPREADING TO THE WEST OF 125W
DURING THE WEEKEND.
STRIPLING
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