680
AXPZ20 KNHC 201509
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 08N93W, THEN RESUMES
NEAR 12N103W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARIES.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL NW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG 145W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 23N120W. THIS PATTERN IS
ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA
WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS NW
WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINING BAJA WATERS TO THE SOUTH, EXCEPT FOR
MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY WINDS NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS. TO THE S, THE
REMNANTS OF T.D. ERICK WERE ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 19N106W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL PREVAILS IN
THIS AREA, ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 13N-23N AND E OF 108W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
PREVAIL FROM THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TO CABO CORRIENTES.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WHERE SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL. NEW NORTHERLY SWELL HAS
BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE BAJA NORTE OFFSHORE WATERS, PRODUCING
ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA THROUGH SUN MORNING BEFORE WINDS THERE GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO GENTLE TO MODERATE BY TUE. N SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH SAT EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO FRESH
TO STRONG THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE SW TO W WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS TONIGHT, THEN BECOME MODERATE OR WEAKER FROM OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA NORTHWARD TO 10N, WITH MODERATE SEAS. FRESH NE GAP
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION OFFSHORE TO NEAR 89W.
MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED S AND SW SWELL ACROSS THE ARE WATERS,
INCLUDING THE PAPAGAYO REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE S TO SW WINDS OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE EXPANDING WESTWARD, AND WILL COINCIDE WITH
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
WINDS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD TO 10N WILL BE MODERATE DURING
THIS TIME. NORTH OF 10N, EXPECT GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION TO PULSE TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO STRONG SPEEDS ON MON NIGHT.
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 37N146W, LOCATED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AND WEST OF
ABOUT 120W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES ARE NORTH OF ABOUT 12N
AND WEST OF 130W, WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE NORTH
OF 20N AND BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN
MIXED SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT NW
AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT WIND PATTERN W OF 120W. SEAS NORTH OF 20N WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NEW N TO NE SWELL PROPAGATES THROUGH
THESE WATERS, SPREADING ROUGH SEAS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS
TO 140W THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING.
ERA
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