577
AXPZ20 KNHC 202100
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 1011 MB LOW NEAR 06N90W
TO 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N132W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES, WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY E OF 98W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL NW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG 145W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 25N120W. MODERATE TO FRESH
NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO,
AND MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS NW WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINING BAJA
WATERS TO THE SOUTH. TO THE S, THE REMNANTS OF T.D. ERICK WERE
ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N105W. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL PREVAILS IN THIS AREA, ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-23N AND E OF
108W. NORTHERLY SWELL IS MOVING INTO THE BAJA NORTE OFFSHORE
WATERS, PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, WHILE
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WINDS THERE GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. N SWELL WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH SAT EVENING, THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE SW TO W WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN BECOME MODERATE OR WEAKER FROM
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD TO 10N, WITH MODERATE SEAS. FRESH NE
GAP WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION OFFSHORE TO NEAR
89W. MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED S AND SW SWELL ACROSS THE ARE WATERS,
INCLUDING THE PAPAGAYO REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE S TO SW WINDS OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE EXPANDING WESTWARD, AND WILL COINCIDE WITH AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. WINDS
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD TO 10N WILL BE MODERATE DURING THIS
TIME. NORTH OF 10N, EXPECT GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
TO PULSE TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO STRONG SPEEDS ON MON NIGHT. MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 36N145W, LOCATED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AND WEST OF
ABOUT 120W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES ARE NORTH OF ABOUT 12N
AND WEST OF 130W, WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE NORTH
OF 20N AND BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN
MIXED SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT NW
AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT WIND PATTERN W OF 120W. SEAS NORTH OF 20N WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NEW N TO NE SWELL PROPAGATES THROUGH
THESE WATERS, SPREADING ROUGH SEAS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS
TO 140W THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING.
ERA
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