035
AXPZ20 KNHC 210836
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUN 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N74W TO 09.5N86W TO 07N93W
TO 13N122W TO LOW PRES 1012 MB NEAR 08N137W TO 07N140W.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N E OF 101W, AND N OF 10N TO THE E OF 96W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 101W AND 139W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL NW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ALONG
145W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 20N120W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BROAD RIDGE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS
YIELDING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA
WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO W
WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINING BAJA WATERS TO THE SOUTH. NORTHERLY
SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 6
TO 9 FT ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, EXCEPT TO 10 FT
TO THE NORTHWEST OF ISLA GUADALUPE, AND 4 TO 7 FT TO THE SOUTH. \
MODERATE TO FRESH SW TO S WINDS NOW PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WITH FRESH W TO SW WINDS WRAPPING AROUND CABO SAN
LUCAS AND INTO THE GULF. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS
NORTH PORTIONS AND 4 TO 6 FT SOUTH PORTIONS.
TO THE SOUTH, A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO GENTLE W TO SW WINDS
PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTHWARD TO 15N, THEN BECOME MODERATE
FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MICHOACAN TO
NAYARIT. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ERICK LINGERS FROM NAYARIT TO
SINALOA AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTALES, WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM THE ENTRANCE TO
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD TO OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT, AT 10 KT OR LESS, FROM MICHOACAN TO
TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ACROSS THE AREA ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED S AND SW
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT WESTWARD BY WED. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WINDS THERE GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUN, THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH SUN
MORNING, THEN DIMINISH TO MODERATE SPEEDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN ECUADOR, SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TONIGHT, AND EXTEND NORTHWARD
TO 05N, WHERE THEY BECOME SW TO W AT MODERATE OR WEAKER SPEEDS NORTHWARD
TO 10N. SEAS ARE MODERATE TO 6 FT ACROSS THIS AREA, EXCEPT TO 7
FT SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS. FRESH NE GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION OFFSHORE TO NEAR 88W. MODERATE SEAS OF 6 TO 7
FT IN MIXED S AND SW SWELL ARE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BECOME ACTIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS SOUTH OF 10N AND E OF
90W, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WATERS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF HONDURAS, EL
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
AND WILL COINCIDE WITH AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AS A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE REGION.
WINDS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWARD TO 10N WILL BE MODERATE DURING
THIS TIME. NORTH OF 10N, EXPECT GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION TO PULSE TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO STRONG SPEEDS ON MON NIGHT.
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK OFF
THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA, LIKELY WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF
THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 38N146W, LOCATED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AND WEST OF
ABOUT 120W. FRESH NE TRADES PREVAIL NORTH OF ABOUT 14N AND WEST
OF 127W, WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE NORTH OF 20N
AND BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN
MIXED SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THIS AREA, WITH HIGHEST SEAS 10 TO 11
FT FOUND N OF 27N AND EAST OF 128W. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WIND
PATTERN W OF 120W. SEAS NORTH OF 20N WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS N TO NE SWELL PROPAGATES THROUGH THESE WATERS,
SPREADING ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT FROM THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS TO
140W THROUGH SUN BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH TUE.
STRIPLING
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