362
AXPZ20 KNHC 211554
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUN 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NOTED NEAR 80W FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SOUTHWARD THROUGH PANAMA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TO NEAR 06N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF 09N FROM SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA THROUGH PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 13N127W TO A 1011 MB
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 07N139W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W
AND 106W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO OFFSHORE OF CABO SAN LUCAS. FRESH TO
STRONG S TO SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
PREVAILS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. MODERATE S WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
ELSEWHERE, RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS NORTH OF CABO
SAN LAZARO. STRONG NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE
LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA,
WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA AS
OBSERVED ON RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED S TO SW SWELL
PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH SUN AS A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND RIDGING TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
NEXT WEEK. ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH
SUN IN THIS REGION BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ELSEWHERE, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH
TO STRONG N WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
OFFSHORE OF COSTA RICA, PANAMA AND COLOMBIA AS THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL PANAMA. GUSTY
WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR THIS ACTIVITY.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN NE SWELL ARE
OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE TO
FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE NOTED, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OBSERVED
OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND WEST-CENTRAL COLOMBIA. RECENT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA SHOW MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NOTED OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA
AND ECUADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL
OFFSHORE OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF FORMATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1034 HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 38N146W EXTENDS
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC, NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 25N ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN N
TO NE SWELL PREVAIL NORTH OF 15N, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
OCCURRING NORTH OF 29N AND EAST OF 125W OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS PREVAIL. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN SE SWELL ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE
NORTH OF 15N THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS NORTH
OF THE AREA. ROUGH SEAS IN N TO NE SWELL ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF
15N THROUGH SUN, WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING WEST OF 130W SUN
AFTERNOON INTO MON, AND EAST OF 130W THROUGH MON. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE LIKELY NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SOUTH OF THIS REGION, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A LONG
PERIOD S TO SE SWELL WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
EQUATORIAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ADAMS
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