512
AXPZ20 KNHC 212150
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUN 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NOTED NEAR 80W FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SOUTHWARD THROUGH PANAMA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TO 06N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 04N TO 10N EAST OF 90W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N103W TO 12N127W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 106W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
TROUGHING EXTENDS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS
OCCURRING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT
ARE NOTED IN THE GULF. ELSEWHERE, RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE WATERS
OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AS NOTED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA.
STRONG NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE LEADING TO
ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA, WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE
TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED S TO SW
SWELL PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH SUN AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
RIDGING TO THE WEST. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF PUNTA EUGENIA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH SUN IN THIS
REGION BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE THROUGH MON. ELSEWHERE, PULSING FRESH
TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN, WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF COSTA
RICA, PANAMA AND COLOMBIA AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL
WAVE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL PANAMA. GUSTY WINDS AND RAPIDLY
BUILDING SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR THIS ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN NE SWELL ARE OCCURRING IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW
WINDS ARE OBSERVED VIA SCATTEROMETER DATA. MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO
7 FT PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
NOTED OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR EAST OF 85W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL
OFFSHORE OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT
TIME AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
JUST OFF THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE OF FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1035 HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 38N146W EXTENDS
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC, NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW FRESH N TO NE
WINDS NORTH OF 15N ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OCCURRING NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 135W.
ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL PREVAIL NORTH OF 15N,
WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NOTED NORTH OF 29N AND EAST OF 125W
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO
SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SE SWELL ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE
NORTH OF 15N THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS NORTH
OF THE AREA. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF 28N
AND EAST OF 125W TONIGHT. ROUGH SEAS IN N TO NE SWELL ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF 15N THROUGH SUN, WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
WEST OF 130W SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON, AND EAST OF 130W BY MON
NIGHT. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SOUTH OF THIS REGION,
GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, A LONG PERIOD S TO SE SWELL WILL PRODUCE ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ADAMS
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