615
AXPZ20 KNHC 220244
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUN 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NOTED ALONG 85W, FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS OF NE HONDURAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AMERICA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO 06N. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 03.5N TO 11N EAST OF 92W AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N73.5W TO 12N82W TO 09N89W
TO 11N122W TO 08N140W. BEYOND THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W, SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 92W AND 104W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05.5N TO 11N BETWEEN
105W AND 122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH S WINDS OCCURRING
THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND A FEW AREAS OF FRESH SW GAP
WIND FLOW, FORCED BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. FRESH TO STRONG W TO SW GAP WINDS HAVE SINCE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, WHERE SEAS ARE NOW 3 TO 6 FT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT.
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS, A BROAD RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL NW OF THE AREA,
SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 20N115W, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS. STRONG NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN NW
SWELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA NORTE, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING
NORTHWEST OF ISLA GUADALUPE. TO THE SOUTH, GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED S TO SW SWELL PREVAIL
OFFSHORE OF BAJA SUR AND SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CHIAPAS AND EASTERN OAXACA ARE
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE WATERS OF THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH SUN AS A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND RIDGING TO THE WEST. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS W. ROUGH TO LOCALLY
VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS THESE WATERS THROUGH SUN BEFORE
SUBSIDING THROUGH MON. ELSEWHERE, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG S TO
SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN,
WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN GULF
TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS S OF 11N AND E OF 92W, AND EXTEND TO THE COASTS OF COSTA
RICA, PANAMA AND COLOMBIA, AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL
WAVE HAS BEGUN TO ENTER THE REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HIGH SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR THIS ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF 10N, MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS WERE OBSERVED VIA SCATTEROMETER
DATA EARLIER TODAY AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING. MODERATE SEAS OF 5
TO 8 FT PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH S
TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL ARE LIKELY
WELL OFFSHORE OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT
TIME AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD
JUST OFF THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE OF FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1035 HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA NEAR 39N146W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND WEST OF 120W.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOWED FRESH N TO NE WINDS
NORTH OF 15N ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OCCURRING NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 135W.
ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL PREVAIL NORTH OF 15N,
WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NOTED NORTH OF 29N AND EAST OF 123W TO
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL. GENTLE TO
MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SE SWELL ARE NOTED
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
NORTH OF 15N THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
NORTH OF THE AREA. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
28N AND EAST OF 125W TONIGHT. ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN N TO
NE SWELL ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 15N THROUGH SUN, WITH SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDING WEST OF 130W SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON, AND EAST OF 130W
BY MON NIGHT. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SOUTH OF THIS REGION,
GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, NEW S TO SE SWELL WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THE EQUATORIAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
STRIPLING
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