977
AXPZ20 KNHC 220839
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUN 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NOTED ALONG 87W, FROM
THE GULF OF HONDURAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO 06N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15
KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM
03N TO 14N BETWEEN 83W AND 93W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N73.5W TO 08N93W TO 12N113W
TO 11N128W TO 10N137W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 10N137W TO
BEYOND 09N140W. BEYOND THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W, SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED N OF 02.5N E OF 80W, AND FROM 03.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W
AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06.5N TO
11N BETWEEN 108W AND 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE
DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH S WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND A FEW AREAS OF SW GAP WIND
FLOW, FORCED BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. SEAS THERE
ARE 3 TO 5 FT. FRESH TO STRONG W TO SW GAP WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED
BY SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, WHERE SEAS ARE
NOW 4 TO 7 FT. ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS, A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL NW OF THE
AREA, SOUTHEASTWARD TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA SUR NEAR 22N115W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE TROUGH ACROSS BAJA
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA
ABREOJOS. STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE OFFSHORE OF MOST OF
CALIFORNIA, AND ARE PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN NW
SWELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA NORTE, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING
NORTHWEST OF ISLA GUADALUPE. TO THE SOUTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS,
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT IN
MIXED S TO SW SWELL PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF BAJA SUR AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO TO THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE WATERS
OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WITHIN 200 NM OF THE COAST.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TODAY, AND THEN DIMINISH
FURTHER TO GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE MON AND TUE, AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION.
STRONG SW GAP WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
WEAKEN STEADILY TODAY. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WATERS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING THROUGH TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH
TO STRONG N GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED, AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE EAST.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS E OF 93W, AND EXTEND INTO THE COASTS OF EL
SALVADOR, NICARAGUA, AND COSTA RICA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W THAT HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGH
SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR THIS ACTIVITY. RECENT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED THAT NORTH OF 10N, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THIS STRONG CONVECTION,
EXCEPT FOR MODERATE E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION. SOUTH OF 10N AND THE MONSOON TROUGH,
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ACROSS
THE REGIONAL OFFSHORE WATERS. MODERATE SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT IN S
SWELL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS E OF
80W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG AT NIGHT ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TUE AS STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH S
TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST SW OF
THE PAPAGAYO REGION BY MON, AND WILL ENHANCE THE GAP WIND FLOW
THERE AND LEAD TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE OF COSTA RICA
AND NICARAGUA LATE MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD JUST
OFF THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGHOUT
THE COMING WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF FORMATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA NEAR 38N146W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND WEST OF 120W.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOWED FRESH N TO NE WINDS
NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 120W, ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OCCURRING NORTH OF 20N AND
WEST OF 137W. ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL PREVAIL
NORTH OF 15N, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS 9 TO 12 FT NOTED NORTH OF
28N AND EAST OF 125W TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
PREVAIL. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SE
SWELL ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
NORTH OF 15N THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES NORTH OF THE AREA. ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE
SWELL ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 15N TODAY, WITH SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDING WEST OF 130W THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON, AND EAST OF 130W
BY MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN MON THROUGH WED,
LEADING TO GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SOUTH OF THIS REGION, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, NEW S TO SE SWELL
WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL WATERS TUE THROUGH
THU.
STRIPLING
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